There’s no time for a hangover in March, so the celebration after Alabama’s outburst against BYU was brief.
The 25 three-pointers and 113 points scored on Thursday night against BYU do not carry over to Saturday.
And Duke will not be scared by those NCAA tournament records when they face off at 7:49 p.m. CT Saturday for a berth in the Final Four.
Alabama (28-8) is a 6.5-point underdog versus the top-seeded Blue Devils after arguably the program’s best offensive performance. That is not stunning for several reasons.
Duke is 34-3 and has only lost once since the end of November.
They are deep.
They are long.
And the Blue Devils are stocked with NBA talent, including Cooper Flagg, the pick for national player of the year.
While it may have risen from the poorest ACC in history, this is the classic Duke team. This blue blood has only made one Final Four (2022) since winning its most recent national championship in 2015.
So, what will it take to defeat this behemoth and advance Alabama to the Final Four for the second time in a row?
It will be necessary to overcome a club that is ranked first in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in defense.
Each of the three teams that beat Duke earlier this season had a different approach. First, in November neutral-site games, Kentucky and Kansas defeated them in thrilling fashion. Clemson defeated the Blue Devils 77-71 on February 8 and has won 14 consecutive games since.
A few notes on how those three beat Duke:
— Kentucky limited Duke to 39.4% shooting (28-for-71), while the Blue Devils hit a season-low 16.7% from three-point range (4-for-24).
— Clemson held Duke to 11 free throws (on 14 attempts), the seventh fewest this season.
— Kansas and Clemson both had limited opportunities, with the Blue Devils taking only 48 shots against the Jayhawks and 55 against Clemson. For context, Alabama has shot at least 50 3-pointers in two games this season.
— Only Kentucky made double-digit 3-pointers, and Clemson won despite shooting only 4-for-10.
— Duke boasts one of the nation’s lowest turnover percentages, but all three opponents forced at least ten. The loss to Kansas resulted in a season-high 16.
— Kansas provided the finest solution to the Flagg problem. The Jayhawks deployed double teams on the rookie sensation, who took only nine shots all night. This 13-point total was the lowest of any game in which he played at least 30 minutes. Flagg went for 38 that night. He made five turnovers.
Otherwise, the Blue Devils have had a great season.
Its KenPom strength of schedule ranks 57th overall (Alabama is first), while its non-conference slate is 21st. That includes a home victory over No. 1 overall seed Auburn.
The Blue Devils’ average margin of victory is 21.1 points, leading the nation and nearly five points ahead of No. 2 Gonzaga.
They don’t have a rotation player under 6-foot-6, and center Khaman Maluach is 7-2 with a 9-foot-8 wingspan. According to KenPom, Duke is the tallest team in the country, with an average height of 79.8 inches (compared to No. 61 Alabama’s 78.1 inches).
This complicates issues for Alabama’s attack, which prefers to shoot from behind the arc or at the rim.
Duke’s length reduced opponents to 43.2% 2-point shooting, the second lowest percentage in the US, according to KenPom. They did significantly better on 3s, ranking 36th with a 31.0% success rate.
Blue Devil opponents’ effective field goal percentage was 44.4%, ranking dead lowest in the country.
Bottom line: Duke uses the defense that BYU only emulated.
The Crimson Tide will need to get creative in order to accommodate both types of shots. Duke will not go behind ball screens, as BYU did to set a record for 3-point shooting.
“They’re obviously a really good offensive team,” Duke’s Sion James said of Alabama on Friday, “but we’ve gotten to this point being ourselves, and we’re not going to stop it for Alabama or anybody else.”
Having said that, Alabama will most likely need another strong perimeter shooting performance. Given Duke’s defense, it would be unreasonable to anticipate a repeat, but if the team can work the inside-out game with guards getting paint touches, the space will open up shooting opportunities.
“When people ask me how many 3s do you want to get up, well, it depends on how you want to guard us,” Nate Oats told ESPN on Friday. “If you’re going to guard us and keep us from getting into the paint, let’s get 51. If you want to absolutely run us off the line, build off each drive, and we’ll try to score 70 or 75 points in the paint.”
What that means in terms of Duke’s size remains to be seen.
What is more evident is the tempo that both teams would prefer.
Alabama will also want to turn it up because Duke isn’t a fast-paced squad like the Tide or BYU on Thursday. While Alabama has the top adjusted pace in KenPom’s rankings, Duke ranks 264th.
“Part of it’s their defense is pretty good,” he said. “Teams take time to score on them. So the better your defense, the longer those possessions last. Offensively, they can be more deliberate at times. They want to ensure that they take the same measures. We’re a little more free flowing.”
So a fast-paced game in which Alabama gets paint touches and can shoot or pass to 3-point shooters while suppressing the likely national player of the year is the best way to win.
Simple enough.
Doing so could result in some major hangovers on Sunday morning.
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